Energy Use and CO2 Emission Outlooks in Illinois Basin

Scott Chen and Yongqi Lu  examine the supply/demand for  energy in the Illinois BasinA study has been completed that developed a baseline scenario of mid-term energy use and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the Illinois Basin. The study forecasts the energy demand, electricity supply, and CO2 emissions for the Illinois Basin from 2005 to 2030. The baseline scenario provides a basis for comparison and for further evaluation of impacts of CO2sequestration and other controls on future energy. The forecast for both primary and secondary energy consumption was performed for five major sectors (residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and electricity) for Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky. The study carefully analyzed the predicted of electricity generation, energy structure, and electricity efficiency, which are key factors impacting future CO2 emissions. The results of this study indicated that during the 2005-2030 time period, the average annual growth rate of total energy use in the Illinois Basin will increase 1.27%. Total electricity generation will increase 1.54% annually. Coal will continue to be the primary source for electricity generation in the Illinois Basin, increasing slightly from the present 72% to 76% of total electricity generation by 2030. According to the baseline scenario, the total annual CO2 emissions in the Illinois Basin will increase from the current 700 million tons to 1,056 million tons by 2030. The electricity generation sector is projected to contribute 46.5 and 48.5% of the total CO2emissions during this period.